On Friday, the US farm markets finish the week lower.
Indeed, corn prices eased 0.35% lower last Friday.
Soybeans fell nearly 1%.
Most winter wheat contracts were down around 0.75%.
On macro markets, oil prices fell on Friday as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output.
Thus, Brent crude futures fell 33 cents to settle at $75.34 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 64 cents to settle at $71.97 a barrel.
On the financial side, U.S. stock indexes slipped on Friday led by major technology firms, while uncertainty over higher corporate taxes weighed on sentiment.
Thus, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 166 points, or 0.48% , to 34,584, the S&P 500 lost 41 points, or 0.91 %, to 4,433 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 138 points, or 0.91 %, to 15,043.
For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.56%, the Dow declined 0.06% and the Nasdaq shed 0.48%.
Meantime, on this morning Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm ahead of a week packed with no less than a dozen central bank meetings, highlighted by the Federal Reserve which is likely to take another step toward tapering.
Holidays in Japan, China and South Korea made for thin conditions, and politics added extra uncertainty with elections in Canada and Germany bookending the week.
Concerns about the health of China’s economy and Beijing’s crackdown on tech firms continues to haunt the region, with stocks in Hong Kong skidding more than 3% to their lowest in almost 11 months.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid another 1.4%, after shedding 2.5% last week, with Australia down 1.5%.
Japan’s Nikkei was shut, but futures were 400 points below the Friday cash close.
Coming back on grains market, throug tomorrow, the central U.S. will see variable rains, varying from no measurable moisture to as much as 1.5” or more in some parts of Minnesota, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.
The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally hot, dry weather for most of the country between September 24 and September 30, meantime.
Through September 14, 58.5% of the country is under some level of drought.
Dry, warm weather could lead to a smooth, speedy harvest in many areas.
That will bring fresh supplies online, which led to some downward pressure on grain prices.
The rise in the dollar is also a factor in the loss of US export competitiveness.
Thus corn prices posted modest losses Friday, but nearby contracts finished the week with gains of nearly 2% thanks to some gains earlier past week.
Soybean prices faced moderate cuts despite another flash sale to China reported on Friday morning which kept losses somewhat in check.
Wheat prices were down due to the spillover weakness from corn and soybeans, that pushed some contracts down as much as 1.2%.
Meantime, IHS Markit Agribusiness offered a new estimate for 2021 U.S. corn production, with 15.046 billion bushels.
That’s slightly above USDA’s September estimate of 14.996 billion bushels.
The group also estimates harvested area will come in at 85.335 million acres, with average yields of 176.3 bushels per acre.
About U.S. soybean production they indicated 4.381 billion bushels.
That’s slightly ahead of USDA’s latest estimate of 4.374 billion bushels.
The group also estimates average yields at 50.6 bushels per acre, with harvested area reaching 87.385 million acres.
IHS Markit Agribusiness also estimates that all-wheat plantings in the U.S. for 2022 will move 3.3% higher year-over-year to 48.5 million acres.
That estimate assumes 34.755 million acres of winter wheat, 11.8 million acres of spring wheat and 1.95 million acres of durum.
In this context, corn basis bids continued to show plenty of variability across the Midwest, moving as much as 18 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal while tumbling as much as 25 cents lower at an Iowa processor on Friday.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm at interior river terminals after rising 2 to 16 cents higher at three locations, while bids held steady elsewhere across the central U.S..
From South America, the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange anticipates a jump in Argentinian corn surfaces, to 7.1 Mha, which could lead to a new record harvest of 55 Mt (50.5 Mt last year).
The “good to excellent” wheat ratings have been raised by three additional points, to 49%, against 14% last year.
On European market, rapeseed continues to confirm its strong potential with a new very symbolic increase last Friday: above 600 € / t.
Global balance sheets are very strained with a clear deficit in European balance sheets and a catastrophic harvest from the world’s largest exporter, Canada.
In the province of Alberta 33% of the land is now harvested, according to the provincial government.
Consequentially, Canadian 21/22 campaign starts on a rate of extremely low exports (297 kt from the 1 st of August, against 1.2 Mt last year the same period!).
Corn harvest is under way in France, with high yields.
The rainy climatic conditions this year have been favorable for this water-demanding crop.
Meantime, French farm office FranceAgriMer held the country’s corn quality ratings steady in its latest weekly estimates, with 89% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through September 13.
That’s well above year-over-year ratings of 59%.
On the other hand, Stratégie Grain cut its estimate of the EU wheat crop by 2.4Mt to 129.1Mt.
From the Black Sea basin, exports remain strong despite the taxes imposed by Russia.
Meantime, Russia’s export tax is down a buck from sixty the prior week.
As always it is no real surprise given the formula methodology but an interesting reflection of the time lag there.
On the other hand, Russia has banned imports of Brazilian beef from two states following an early September report of atypical mad cow disease.
Corn harvests have started in Ukraine, but rains are expected for the next few days, which could delay construction.
Meantime, analyst APK-Inform predicts the country will harvest 1.488 billion bushels of corn in 2021.
Ukrainian corn exports are expected to reach 1.181 billion bushels during the 2021/22 marketing year.
Ukraine is one of the world’s leading exporters of both corn and wheat.
Analyst APK-Inform anticipates Ukraine’s 2021 wheat production will reach 1.146 billion bushels.
The consultancy also predicts Ukraine will export roughly 772 million bushels of wheat during the 2021/22 marketing year.
Exports to China will be key for the future.
In this context, wheat prices continue to increase with in Ukraine a test of 300 usd / t on an fob basis for 11.5% of protein.
From Australia, the country is gearing up for a second consecutive bin-busting wheat crop for the 2021/22 season, which forecasters have pegged at 1.198 billion bushels.
If realized, that would be the second-highest wheat production for Australia on record, second only to 2020/21.
Producers are fighting through pandemic-related logistical challenges that include machinery and labor shortages.
Severe frosts in Western Australia’s central grainbelt and a dry spring have conspired to shave around 700,000 tonnes off the state’s winter crop estimates in the past month.
In its September crop report, the Grain Industry Association of WA (GIWA) is now predicting the state will produce 19.307 million tonnes (Mt) of winter crop, down from 20.027Mt forecast in August.
The revised estimates still point to a record crop, potentially eclipsing the previous highs in 2016 and 2018 of 18.158Mt and 17.913Mt respectively.
Meantime, Aussie local markets continued to follow the global board up.
Internationally, South Korea purchased 66,000 t of animal feed corn from optional origins in a private deal that recently closed.
The grain is for shipment between late October and late November.
South Korea purchased 82,000 t of wheat from Australia earlier this week.
The grain is for shipment in February and March.
USA once again sold 132,000 t of soybeans to China.
We wish you a good day.
